Problem gambling among international and domestic ...

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what is problem gambling australia - win

What a joke the NSW government is. This is their reply to what they are doing for the billion dollar gambling addiction they have. They don’t have the guts actually fix the problem and save the state from this. Poker machines and gambling have destroyed NSW and Australia!

What a joke the NSW government is. This is their reply to what they are doing for the billion dollar gambling addiction they have. They don’t have the guts actually fix the problem and save the state from this. Poker machines and gambling have destroyed NSW and Australia! submitted by phresh_styles to problemgambling [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

7 books that took us to $150k in 45 days

Like most of you reading this, I’ve read too many terrible marketing & startup-related books.
Growth Hacker? I suppose it was okay, for it’s time.
This Is Marketing? Took nothing from it.
Traction? It could have been summed up in a blog post.
After searching for ‘Top 10 Marketing Books’ and reading everything I could find on those lists over the last few years, I’ve stopped buying marketing books because almost everyone was either aimed at beginners, were written as a lead-magnet with the aim of selling you consulting or a course, or they simply were written without anything actionable that I could actually ‘use’.
Like many during the last 9 months, my agency moved out of our office and we have worked entirely from home. A positive that came from that I started to read way more often, usually aiming for a book a week.
The first book I read was a gift that I received a couple of years back and had been on my shelf collecting dust ever since. It was the only book that I owned which I hadn’t already read, so to make things simple I started with that. It was The Brand Gap by Marty Neumeier.
It absolutely blew me away.
I read it from cover to cover in one sitting and then read it again the following week. I told everyone that would listen: “The Brand Gap is the single most important book I’ve ever read”.
After this, I spoke to friends working in branding, design, copywriting, and project management and asked for book recommendations. I specified that I didn’t want books that only scratched the surface, I wanted to read the books that changed their entire mindset and way or working.
I ended up with a huge reading list (and a few shelves full of books) which I worked my way through over the last few months. There was no filler, and nothing I’d consider to be average — I gained something significant from every single book.
I’ve compiled a list of seven of the books which I’d consider to have had the biggest impact on me.
For each book mentioned I’ll include a link to Bookshop, along with a testimonial and some of the book description.
1. The Brand Gap — Marty Neumeier
“A well-managed brand is the lifeblood of any successful company. Read this book before your competitors do!” ―TOM KELLEY, GENERAL MANAGER, IDEO
THE BRAND GAP is the first book to present a unified theory of brand. The second edition features a 220-term brand glossary and a premium softcover binding. Whereas most books on branding are weighted toward either a strategic or creative approach, this book shows how both ways of thinking can unite to produce a “charismatic brand” — a brand that customers feel is essential to their lives.
2. Everybody Writes — Ann Handley
“All your shiny new channels, properties, and platforms are a waste of space without smart, useful content. Ann Handley’s new book helps make every bit of content count — for your customers and your bottom line.” — Kristina Halvorson, President, Brain Traffic
If you have a website, you are a publisher. If you are on social media, you are in marketing. And that means that we are all relying on our words to carry our marketing messages. We are all writers.
Everybody Writes is your go-to guide to attracting and retaining customers through stellar online communication, because in our content-driven world, every one of us is a writer.
3. How Brands Grow: What Marketers Don’t Know — Byron Sharp
“…marketers need to move beyond the psycho-babble and read this book… or be left hopelessly behind.” — Joseph Tripodi, The Coca-Cola Company
Professor Byron Sharp is the Director of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science at the University of South Australia. The Institute’s fundamental research is used and financially supported by many of the world’s leading corporations including Coca-Cola, Kraft, Kellogg’s, British Airways, Procter & Gamble, Nielsen, TNS, Turner Broadcasting, Network Ten, Simplot, Mars and many others.
4. D&AD. The Copy Book
“The Copy Book convinced me that everyone in business should study the art of copywriting.” — Fortune.com
The book features a work selection and essays by 53 leading professionals in the world, including copywriting superstars such as David Abbott, Lionel Hunt, Steve Hayden, Dan Wieden, Neil French, Mike Lescarbeau, Adrian Holmes, and Barbara Nokes.
The lessons to be learned on these pages will help you create clearer and more persuasive arguments, whether you are writing an inspiring speech, an engaging web banner or a persuasive letter. This is not simply a “must-have” book for people in advertising and marketing, it is also a “should-have” for anyone who needs to involve or influence people, by webpage, on paper, or in person.
5. Junior: Writing Your Way Ahead in Advertising — Thomas Kemeny
“If my older and wiser brother were an ad book, these would be his exact words. If he’d ask me to wash his filthy car every Sunday in exchange for his wisdom, I’d say ‘No problem, ‘ knowing I got the better end of the deal.” — PAUL MALMSTROM, Creative Chairman and Co-Founder, Mother
There are a lot of great advertising books, but none that get down in the dirt with you quite like this one. Thomas Kemeny made a career at some of the best ad agencies in America. In this book he shows how he got in, how he’s stayed in, and how you can do it too. He breaks apart how to write fun, smart, and effective copy-everything from headlines to scripts to experiential activations-giving readers a lesson on a language we all thought we already knew.
6. Hey, Whipple, Squeeze This: The Classic Guide to Creating Great Ads — Luke Sullivan
“Classic must-read Sullivan mixed with innovation master Boches make the perfect duo. This is the book that will help guide new talent to great career starts. Required reading for a new era.” — Deborah Morrison**,** Distinguished Professor of Advertising, University of Oregon
Hey Whipple, Squeeze This has helped generations of young creatives make their mark in the field. From starting out and getting work, to building successful campaigns, you gain a real-world perspective on what it means to be great in a fast-moving, sometimes harsh industry. You’ll learn how to tell brand stories and create brand experiences online and in traditional media outlets, and you’ll learn more about the value of authenticity, simplicity, storytelling, and conflict.
7. Positioning: The Battle for Your Mind — Al Ries, Jack Trout
The first book to deal with the problems of communicating to a skeptical, media-blitzed public, Positioning describes a revolutionary approach to creating a “position” in a prospective customer’s mind-one that reflects a company’s own strengths and weaknesses as well as those of its competitors.
“…Ries and Trout taught me everything I know about branding, marketing, and product management. When I had the idea of creating a very large thematic community on the Web, I first thought of Positioning….” — David Bohnett, Chairman and Founder of GeoCities
So, there you have it. It’s worth nothing, my list above is just that; my list. I’m sure there are plenty of people that read books from that list and for whatever reason, it just didn’t resonate with them in the same way that Growth Hackersdoesn’t do it for me, either. These are simply the books I’d consider to be game-changing, and now recommend them to anyone working in marketing & e-commerce.
Got a book recommendation? I’d love to hear! Share some recommendations below.
submitted by otaota to startups [link] [comments]

7 books to transform your marketing

Like most of you reading this, I’ve read too many terrible marketing & startup-related books.
Growth Hacker? I suppose it was okay, for it’s time.
This Is Marketing? Took nothing from it.
Traction? It could have been summed up in a blog post.
After searching for ‘Top 10 Marketing Books’ and reading everything I could find on those lists over the last few years, I’ve stopped buying marketing books because almost everyone was either aimed at beginners, were written as a lead-magnet with the aim of selling you consulting or a course, or they simply were written without anything actionable that I could actually ‘use’.
Like many during the last 9 months, my agency moved out of our office and we have worked entirely from home. A positive that came from that I started to read way more often, usually aiming for a book a week.
The first book I read was a gift that I received a couple of years back and had been on my shelf collecting dust ever since. It was the only book that I owned which I hadn’t already read, so to make things simple I started with that. It was The Brand Gap by Marty Neumeier.
It absolutely blew me away.
I read it from cover to cover in one sitting and then read it again the following week. I told everyone that would listen: “The Brand Gap is the single most important book I’ve ever read”.
After this, I spoke to friends working in branding, design, copywriting, and project management and asked for book recommendations. I specified that I didn’t want books that only scratched the surface, I wanted to read the books that changed their entire mindset and way or working.
I ended up with a huge reading list (and a few shelves full of books) which I worked my way through over the last few months. There was no filler, and nothing I’d consider to be average — I gained something significant from every single book.
I’ve compiled a list of seven of the books which I’d consider to have had the biggest impact on me.
For each book mentioned I’ll include a link to Bookshop, along with a testimonial and some of the book description.
1. The Brand Gap — Marty Neumeier
“A well-managed brand is the lifeblood of any successful company. Read this book before your competitors do!” ―TOM KELLEY, GENERAL MANAGER, IDEO
THE BRAND GAP is the first book to present a unified theory of brand. The second edition features a 220-term brand glossary and a premium softcover binding. Whereas most books on branding are weighted toward either a strategic or creative approach, this book shows how both ways of thinking can unite to produce a “charismatic brand” — a brand that customers feel is essential to their lives.
2. Everybody Writes — Ann Handley
“All your shiny new channels, properties, and platforms are a waste of space without smart, useful content. Ann Handley’s new book helps make every bit of content count — for your customers and your bottom line.” — Kristina Halvorson, President, Brain Traffic
If you have a website, you are a publisher. If you are on social media, you are in marketing. And that means that we are all relying on our words to carry our marketing messages. We are all writers.
Everybody Writes is your go-to guide to attracting and retaining customers through stellar online communication, because in our content-driven world, every one of us is a writer.
3. How Brands Grow: What Marketers Don’t Know — Byron Sharp
“…marketers need to move beyond the psycho-babble and read this book… or be left hopelessly behind.” — Joseph Tripodi, The Coca-Cola Company
Professor Byron Sharp is the Director of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science at the University of South Australia. The Institute’s fundamental research is used and financially supported by many of the world’s leading corporations including Coca-Cola, Kraft, Kellogg’s, British Airways, Procter & Gamble, Nielsen, TNS, Turner Broadcasting, Network Ten, Simplot, Mars and many others.
4. D&AD. The Copy Book
“The Copy Book convinced me that everyone in business should study the art of copywriting.” — Fortune.com
The book features a work selection and essays by 53 leading professionals in the world, including copywriting superstars such as David Abbott, Lionel Hunt, Steve Hayden, Dan Wieden, Neil French, Mike Lescarbeau, Adrian Holmes, and Barbara Nokes.
The lessons to be learned on these pages will help you create clearer and more persuasive arguments, whether you are writing an inspiring speech, an engaging web banner or a persuasive letter. This is not simply a “must-have” book for people in advertising and marketing, it is also a “should-have” for anyone who needs to involve or influence people, by webpage, on paper, or in person.
5. Junior: Writing Your Way Ahead in Advertising — Thomas Kemeny
“If my older and wiser brother were an ad book, these would be his exact words. If he’d ask me to wash his filthy car every Sunday in exchange for his wisdom, I’d say ‘No problem, ‘ knowing I got the better end of the deal.” — PAUL MALMSTROM, Creative Chairman and Co-Founder, Mother
There are a lot of great advertising books, but none that get down in the dirt with you quite like this one. Thomas Kemeny made a career at some of the best ad agencies in America. In this book he shows how he got in, how he’s stayed in, and how you can do it too. He breaks apart how to write fun, smart, and effective copy-everything from headlines to scripts to experiential activations-giving readers a lesson on a language we all thought we already knew.
6. Hey, Whipple, Squeeze This: The Classic Guide to Creating Great Ads — Luke Sullivan
“Classic must-read Sullivan mixed with innovation master Boches make the perfect duo. This is the book that will help guide new talent to great career starts. Required reading for a new era.” — Deborah Morrison**,** Distinguished Professor of Advertising, University of Oregon
Hey Whipple, Squeeze This has helped generations of young creatives make their mark in the field. From starting out and getting work, to building successful campaigns, you gain a real-world perspective on what it means to be great in a fast-moving, sometimes harsh industry. You’ll learn how to tell brand stories and create brand experiences online and in traditional media outlets, and you’ll learn more about the value of authenticity, simplicity, storytelling, and conflict.
7. Positioning: The Battle for Your Mind — Al Ries, Jack Trout
The first book to deal with the problems of communicating to a skeptical, media-blitzed public, Positioning describes a revolutionary approach to creating a “position” in a prospective customer’s mind-one that reflects a company’s own strengths and weaknesses as well as those of its competitors.
“…Ries and Trout taught me everything I know about branding, marketing, and product management. When I had the idea of creating a very large thematic community on the Web, I first thought of Positioning….” — David Bohnett, Chairman and Founder of GeoCities
So, there you have it. It’s worth nothing, my list above is just that; my list. I’m sure there are plenty of people that read books from that list and for whatever reason, it just didn’t resonate with them in the same way that Growth Hackersdoesn’t do it for me, either. These are simply the books I’d consider to be game-changing, and now recommend them to anyone working in marketing & e-commerce.
Got a book recommendation? I’d love to hear! Share some recommendations below.
submitted by otaota to marketing [link] [comments]

Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD

Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD
Hi all,
Yesterday Enphase Energy published their Q4 2020 results. See my earlier DD here in this sub.
With this post I would like to discuss the results and the web-call with regard to future growth/earnings. So far my investment in Enphase was a solid move (5% after-market), let’s hope that this momentum will increase. I have divided this post in three chapters: results, web-cast management notes and analyst Q&A. However, before we continue let me first do a short into on the new C-suite hire.
Chief Marketing Officer
Enphase recently announced that they hired Allison Johnson as Chief Marketing Officer. Who is Mrs. Johnson and why did they hire her at this moment? Are sales declining or are there some amazing plans in the pipeline?
“Johnson brings decades of executive marketing experience to Enphase, including serving as chief marketing officer at PayPal, where she led a global marketing transformation, and as vice president of marketing communications at Apple, Inc., where she helped launch some of Apple’s most iconic products and campaigns of the Steve Jobs era. Johnson received her Bachelor of Science degree in journalism and communications at the University of Florida.”
When checking her Linkedin, she started working at IBM as a Media Relations Director, moved to Netscape (1 year) à HP (6 years) à Apple (6 years) à West (7 years) à Paypal (1.5 years).
Let leave it here for now.
Results Q4 2020:
· We reported revenue of $264.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, along with 40.2% for non-GAAP gross margin. We shipped approximately 762 megawatts DC, or 2,292,132 microinverters.
· Revenue of $264.8 million
· Cash flow from operations of $84.2 million; ending cash balance of $679.4 million
· GAAP gross margin of 46.0%; non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2%
· GAAP operating income of $79.1 million; non-GAAP operating income of $72.4 million
· GAAP net income of $73.0 million; non-GAAP net income of $71.3 million
· GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.50; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.51

https://preview.redd.it/8rqzlro7vmg61.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=605df05a5786cde0d8a866f3fe901dd691bdf4ad
This was their forecast for Q4 2020:
For the fourth quarter of 2020, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
· Revenue to be within a range of $245.0 million to $260.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
· GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, excluding the recovery of the remaining $16.0 million tariff refund that has not yet been approved; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding tariff refund and stock-based compensation expenses
· GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $51.0 million to $54.0 million, including $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
· Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $35.0 million to $38.0 million, excluding $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
So one can say that they performed extremely well.
Management notes web-call:
Badri:
Let's now talk about manufacturing. Our operations team did a great job flexing manufacturing as 2020 played out. When the pandemic began, we cut manufacturing in Q2 of 2020 and then had to quickly ramp back up to meet the surge in demand in Q3 and Q4. The production in Q4 was more than two times the level in Q2. I'm very pleased with the ramp of our Mexico factory that met our target of producing more than 1 million units in Q4.”
“As part of our supply chain strategy to diversify production to tariff free and cost competitive locations globally, we began microinverter production at Salcomp, India in October of 2020 and started shipping to customers during Q4. We have a high quality state-of-the-art automated line with a quarterly production capacity of 0.5 million units and the space to add a second line with the same capacity. The production ramp is going very well and we expect to produce approximately 400,000 microinverters in India in Q1.”
“Let's now move on to the regions. Our US and international revenue mix for Q4 was 82% and 18%.”
“In Europe, we reported record revenue for Q4. Revenue increased 10% sequentially. On an annual basis, the revenue from Europe increased 32% in 2020.”
“In Australia, we built on our strong Q3 results and achieved record quarterly sell-through and record installer count in Q4. The results were fueled by the launch of our Enphase Installer Network or EIN as well as growing demand for our high power IQ 7A microinverters plus a favorable competitive environment as regulations continued to shift towards safer and smarter solar. We expect to introduce our Enphase Storage system for the Australian market during the fourth quarter of 2021.”
“In Latin America, we reported record quarterly revenue. Puerto Rico showed strength for our microinverter systems as well as our storage systems.”
“At the same time, the uptick in broad economic activity has stressed the global semiconductor supply chain. We are seeing constraints on a few semiconductor components used in our microinverters.”
There are two specific components that we are constrained on. One is our ASIC that goes into the micro and the other is the AC FET drivers that actually drive the high voltage FET. There the name of the game is we are qualifying multiple more sources so that we have more supply as well as expediting product. And I am in direct touch with the CEOs of those companies and they are helping as much as they can. We expect to get all caught up basically by early April. Our top priority through all of this is to ensure that we take care of customers. So we will do whatever it takes in order to ensure their lines are running and that they are not affected. So that's on the microinverter side.”
“You will see a lot more going forward. So we continue to grow at a nice clip. You can do the math. If we continue to grow at this 30%, soon we will need a third supplier, that might happen in 2022 and we are already talking to those people”
TL:DR: They are growing in every aspect. They are trying to train installers internationally (Australia, Europe, South-America). Ones these installers are trained appropriately, they will start installing the products. Enphase will rather wait with the installment to only send very trained personnel, then just let a shitty installer do the job.
Q&A:
Q1: “Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the quarter. So you said you'll start shipping IQ 8 in 2Q. How should we think about IQ 8's standalone pricing versus IQ 7? What may be the range on the premium and might you expect over time a majority of installers shifting more toward IQ 8 versus IQ 7 or is the jury out on that question still?”
A1: “With regarding whether people are going to adopt IQ 8 over IQ 7, we think the answer is a no brainer. It's going to be, yes. IQ 8 is a grid-independent microinverter system. So, therefore, I expect the adoption to be high when it is released and there are obviously a lot of combinations with IQ 8 and in some cases, people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
Q2: “Okay. Thank you. And just on the R&D cycle, are there any updates you can provide on the development of IQ 9 where that currently stands at this time? Is it still being developed or is it in testing phase? If you can provide any color there? Thank you.”
A2: “Yeah. We are actually working on IQ 9 at this time and IQ 9, our vision is basically obviously smaller, cheaper, faster, producing a lot more power than IQ 8. Right now, we are focused on a few areas. One is, we'd like to see how to reduce the footprint of the transformers, the [indiscernible] (00:49:10), the 600-volt AC FET devices through some semiconductor process innovation. GaN transistors are becoming widespread. GaN-on-GaN, GaN-on-silicon, they are becoming widespread.”
Q3: “And just on the new acquisitions and the digital strategy, could you maybe talk about like what's the goal here in terms of reducing that soft cost? I think a couple in the solar developers have talked about $7,000 or $8,000 per customer of soft costs. So, is the idea here to kind of like bring it down similar to probably what the soft cost is in Europe and Australia or what's your thought process here? And I have just a quick follow-up after that as well. Thanks.
Yeah. So, soft cost is an outcome of what our goal is. Our goal is to provide our installer partners with the best service possible, and so – installer partners actually as well as the homeowner. So, we have mapped out a very detailed journey of both how the entire installation process as well for both the installers as well as our homeowners starting with leads all the way through design, proposal, permitting, procurement, commissioning, installation commissioning, permission to operate O&M, et cetera. And so, if we do an amazing job on that where we really create a very powerful platform and these acquisitions that we're talking about are important elements of that journey, then I think the natural outcome of that is going to be a reduction in the soft cost. But we are starting with a very clear focus that this is about bringing great value for our long-tail installer partners.”
My thoughts:
Staying invested in a company post-earnings is normally not our strategy. We scan every company on the earnings calendar and dive in the fundamentals/growth of that company. If you find 3 solid companies which you want to gamble your money on per week, there is a possibility to earn 10% ROI on each of those companies. Investing in boomer company of which the stock increases 2% post-earnings is not interesting for us. It rather be +7% at least, or nothing.
Enphase however is a different story. They keep beating their forecasts every quarter. There is enormous demand for their products and they a growing in supply and demand.
- Management is amazing. The way Badri perceives the business is very client focused. They are well aware that this is a client focused business and quality and client experience are top priority.
- With regards to future growth they have some very interesting things going on. IQ 8, which I expect to be finished during the 2nd quarter of this year. Then it is the job of the new CMO to promote the heck out of this. As Badri said in the call: “people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
- There is so much growth opportunity in this company. And yes the P/E is high, but you must see Enphase as a tech company and not solar producer. Last quarter they hired 85 employees.
- So our plan: keep this gem for one more quarter to see how their results are in the next quarter. Have they improved their semiconductors problem or not? Are they still beating the forecast or not. Then we’ll see from there on. This weekend’s plan: scan earnings calendar of next week to find the next gem 😊
Q1 2021 forecasts:
For the first quarter of 2021, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
• Revenue to be within a range of $280.0 million to $300.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
• GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, as there are no remaining tariff refunds pending approval; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding stock-based compensation expenses
• GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $64.0 million to $67.0 million, including $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
• Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $42.0 million to $45.0 million, excluding $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
submitted by Edjaz to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects

As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law.
Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time.
It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency.
The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one.
best fits
Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two.
worst fits
If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively.
(2) C James Wiseman, Memphis
A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970?
Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5.
Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat.
Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center.
best fits
We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6).
worst fits
Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick.
(3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Another big man? I may be showing my age here.
Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker.
Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player.
While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.)
best fits
The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case.
worst fits
As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade.
(4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings)
Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter.
No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical.
At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status.
LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie.
So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks.
best fits
If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time.
worst fits
Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place.
(5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel
The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year.
In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5.
In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets.
best fits
If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential.
worst fits
I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there.
(6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions.
Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.)
Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot.
In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet.
best fits
Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them.
worst fits
You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10).
(7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards.
Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well.
Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA.
All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on.
best fits
The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes.
worst fits
Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent.
(8) PG Killian Hayes, France
If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited.
Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall.
Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection.
best fits
Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well.
worst fits
Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer.
(9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison.
Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players.
Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player.
best fits
Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers.
worst fits
It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.)
(10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect.
Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes.
Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering.
best fits
In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.)
worst fits
I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16).
(11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings)
When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5??
But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively.
We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead.
best fits
While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love.
worst fits
If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s.
(12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings)
We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it.
Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year.
To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick.
best fits
While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves.
worst fits
With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base.
(13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona
As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race.
In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends.
best fits
As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5.
worst fits
I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode.
(14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford
Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry.
That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James).
And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range.
best fits
If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench.
worst fits
Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player.
(15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia
We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans.
But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside.
Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat.
All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security.
best fits
If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild.
worst fits
Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane.
I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
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South Africa part 3: Cecil Rhodes

South Africa part 3: Cecil Rhodes
To think of these stars that you see overhead at night, these vast worlds which we can never reach. I would annex the planets if I could; I often think of that. It makes me sad to see them so clear and yet so far. -- Cecil Rhodes, Last Will and Testament
This is the 3rd post in a series on South Africa and Apartheid and so far in the first two neither Apartheid nor South Africa even exists. But we are to the mid climax. In first part we discussed how our groups of players: Afrikaners, British, Xhosa, Zulu, minor tribes, other ethnicities got to what would become South Africa. In the second part we discussed how the Zulus and Xhosa knocked themselves out of the game leaving the British and Afrikaners as the main players standing for who got rule what would become South Africa. We also discussed how the British policy was non-viable. This part is going to discuss how the British changed course and consequently won control. We are also going to get to the genesis of the Western Left's hatred of the Afrikaners and the genesis of Apartheid, We'll end on the creation of the Union of South Africa which while not the Republic of South Africa will allow me to stop talking about "Southern Africa", "territory that will become South Africa".... But unfortunately you will have to sit through this one more post where South Africa doesn't exist yet.
Cecil Rhodes was born in 1853 the sickly asthmatic 5th son of a not particularly notable clergyman. He'd remain sickly his entire life dying in 1902 at the age of 48 from the sorts of deterioration of the heart and lung one wouldn't expect to see until a man was at least well into their 90s. In that short span he would: become one of the richest men in the world; found several countries; change the entire economic structure of the territories that would become: South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe; found 2 major corporations: the British South Africa Company and De Beers; rethink British imperialism inventing what would become the British Commonwealth; becoming one of the defining figures and great visionaries of the Victorian Age; trigger the 2nd Boer War; demonstrate the strategy changing nature of the machine gun decades before World War 1; be the only genuinely important Prime Minister of the Cape Colony; invent the concept of corporate armies; play a large role in saving the South African wine industry and most importantly be the only individual getting his own post in this series. :) Rhodes was sent to South Africa at the age of 17 so that the British weather didn't kill him. Rather than doing the normal thing and spending the money (amounting to a decade or less of a comfortable middle class salary, but no great fortune) on living with some gambling and girls thrown in he decided to head to the newly discovered diamond mines in Kimberly and started buying up small diamond mining operations leveraging each mine's output and outside financing to buy the next. Later he partnered with leading financing and trading firms so by 1888 had what amounted to monopoly control of diamond industry turning De Beers into the diamond powerhouse it remains to this day though the last pieces wouldn't fall into place until 1890. He by the 1880s De Beers was throwing off enough excess profits that he could pay investors and continue expending De Beers while being able to found the predecessor to the British South Africa Company operating much further into the interior opening up Bechuanaland and Rhodesia as colonies using his own profits to fund the administrative expenses much as the East India Company had done a century earlier.
Rhodes believed that British policy wasn't viable because it was petty. A vibrant healthy economy throws off an enormous amount of tax revenue. Petty colonialism, like the kind the British were engaging in would never generate much profit because of its very short term nature. Britain should make money by investing in the local economy, spend some on upkeep, reinvesting most of the profits and just skim a little of a forever growing payout. What Britain had tried to do with the American colonies encouraging economic development was the right approach. The problem was London had been shortsighted and selfish turning the local administrators against them. The independence of the USA wasn't a strategic failure it was the result of poor tactical implementation. The problem the British were facing in Southern Africa was similar and since the policies had been similar the results would be as well. The Afrikaners had no reason to be loyal to a Britain which had spent almost a century making very clear that it had no interest in their welfare or society beyond some ports which were frankly not nearly so important since Suez had opened. Rhodes changed policy to have Britain stop acting like a colonizing power and start acting like the domestic government of South Africa as much as possible .Outlining his changes to colonial governing policy:
  • Colonial financing -- utilize profits from business ventures fund army. Rhodes' companies were good examples of this the British charter and the backing of British troops allowed him to make excess profits which allowed him to incur expenses which the previous skinflint administration could never have tolerated. For example British colonial bonds generated an average return of 4.7%. Investments in independent American bonds generated an average return of only 2.9%. The difference was not being taken into account when the Colonial Office calculated their return on investment which to Rhodes' mind was simply lousy accounting.
  • Long term investment -- In general rewire the metrics used at the London Colonial Office to focus on long term investment not short term profits.
  • Demographics -- The British were the world's first people. Physically populate as much of the world as possible. Assimilate other people's into the British way of life. In South Africa in particular he intended to win the hearts and minds of the Boer.
  • Stability -- The previous administration had focused on stability because instability created upheavals that increased administrative costs. For too long British colonial policy was to tolerate and coexist with local culture. To create a profitable economy agricultural efficiencies are going to need to be introduced. That means 90% of the natives are going to freed up to work in a manufacturing and processing workforce. It also means the agricultural tribal traditional culture is going to be completely destroyed. Instability not stability should be policy. Seek to replace local culture with British culture to enhance the potential for economic growth.
  • Glory to British not England -- English colonies exist for glory of England. British colonies self exist. England's glory is that is the Birthplace of the 1st people not how much of the world remains completely non-British while in some vague unimportant sense recognizing Victoria as their Queen.
  • Representation -- As long as colonial governments respond to a English democracy they will be unrepresentative of their people. Create a democratic institution which provides representation for all British people in a British Parliament. There should be an English parliament for England. Invite the United States to join this new institution. "Inauguration of a system of Colonial representation in the Imperial Parliament which may tend to weld together the disjointed members of the Empire and, finally, the foundation of so great a Power as to render wars impossible, and promote the best interests of humanity" (NB: this is essentially the British Commonwealth, though of course the USA was not invited)
  • Devastating defeat of enemies -- Colonial policy was designed to solve conflict cheaply. Small military victories do not undermine the hostile's economy nor their society and thus don't accomplish much. They simply delay and prolonging the problem created by the enemy allowing the enemy to choose points in time to achieve advantage. Avoid costly wars certainly but when war is needed seek to inflict devastating defeat so the subject people realize their inferiority. This realization facilities undermining their institutions and thus during the peace their way of life easily becomes more British. Further a willingness to war like this makes challenging Britain very costly and risky for potential enemies and thus wars will be far less frequent. The financial people are correct that the aggregate cost of inflicting devastating defeats infrequently is higher than more frequent small wars but the benefits are far greater. War carried out towards devastating defeat becomes a form of investment not a pure non-productive expense.
  • Scope -- The British were far to unambitious in their aims. The goal of British colonialism should be "all lands where the means of livelihood are attainable by energy, labour and enterprise". The scope was, "the occupation by British settlers of the entire Continent of Africa, the Holy Land, the Valley of the Euphrates, the Islands of Cyprus and Candia, the whole of South America, the Islands of the Pacific not heretofore possessed by Great Britain, the whole of the Malay Archipelago, the seaboard of China and Japan, the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British Empire"

map of Cecil Rhodes' proposed British Empire
You'll notice that all of Africa was in the map. Rhodes was of the opinion that Africa was incredibly rich in minerals and peoples. But it wasn't exploitable for profit because of a lack of transportation infrastructure. Rhodes was pushing to start fixing this by creating a full African north-south railway connecting "Cairo to the Cape". Rhodes' BSAC conquests were designed to drive north while he used his political influence to push the Egyptian conquest further south into Anglo-Egyptian Sudan and then a business similar to BSAC run by Sir William Mackinnon to push into Uganda.
For the northward push (primarily in what today is Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana) Rhodes was directly implementing his policy using a private army funded from the British South Africa Company. The Ndebele and Shona (Zulu tribes) were handled easily by the devastating defeat principle. Rhodes' forces demonstrated how effectively Maxims (a primitive form of machine gun) and barbed wire worked against simple rifles, spears and long shields achieving kill ratios never before seen in the history of warfare. As an aside these battles against the Zulus would also be used by those military theorists and historians who correctly anticipated in the later 1890s through 1910s how devastating a war between the great powers would be using these weapons against each other. Rhodes through BSAC had managed to push north of Lake Mweru and to the Northern tip of Lake Nyasa. Which almost connected with Sudan were it not for German East Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania) in the middle. In theory an alternative route through the Belgian Congo would also work but the gold mines in Tanzania kept Rhodes focused on taking German East Africa. Further Rhodes met his match in ruthlessness when it came to the Belgians. When Rhodes' negotiating agent sought a development contract for mineral-rich Katanga (in Congo) the native ruler Msiri refused. King Leopold II of Belgium obtained the same concession by having his agent signing it to Belgium himself over Msiri's dead body in the name of the "Congo Free State".
At the same time Rhodes worked with the Colonial office and in 1890 British issued the "1890 British Ultimatum" to Portugal. This ultimatum by the British government forced the retreat of Portuguese military forces from areas which had been claimed by Portugal on the basis of historical discovery and recent exploration, but which the United Kingdom claimed on the basis of effective occupation. Portugal had attempted to claim a large area of land between its colonies of Mozambique and Angola including most of present-day Zimbabwe and Zambia and a large part of Malawi, which had been included in Portugal's "Rose-coloured Map". This ultimatum violated the Anglo-Portuguese Treaty of 1373 which to that point had been the longest standing peace treaty in history.

Who owned what by the early 1900s
Take a look at the map above and imagine the British controlling the north-south line connecting to a British/Portuguese line running east-west in the south and a joint French/British/Italian line running east-west in the north. From there local government and companies could construct smaller feeder lines creating a modern rail system. Hopefully and you start to see how Rhodes intended to start developing the transpiration infrastructure needed to create a strong African economy.
All this was going to be for naught though if Southern Africa ended up as a Boer state hostile to British interests on the model ZAR (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic). So Rhodes decided to run for Prime Minister of the Cape Colony and solve the problems of British strategy explicated in part 2. The primary problem the Boer had with British government is their divide and conquer approach. The British tilted to whomever was losing (a standard British policy they would also follow in Palestine) which for decades meant treating the Boer and native Africans as both being subject peoples while favoring the native Africans against the Boer. In Rhodes mind you could not expect to get loyalty from people you were obvious disfavoring. The British were the ones turning the Boer into enemies.
So in 1892 Rhodes instituted the Franchise and Ballot Act. This was seen as a compromise between factions in the Colonial Office and the traditions in the Cape Colony for a broad democracy (anyone with £25 in property could vote) and Orange and ZAR's (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic) more exclusive democracy. Rhodes raised the amount of property to £75, an amount specifically chosen to disempower many of the native Africans while allowing many Boers to vote. With a Boer and British based democracy locked in the Cape Colony's democratic powers could be strengthened, creating more self rule and making the involvement of the London Colonial Office less obvious. This concept of using a not explicitly racial criteria while instituting laws with racist intent is very modern.
Various Liberals in the London Colonial Office especially missionaries disagreed strongly with Rhode's policies. They had been the ones advocating for the enlightened colonialism that was British policy. Missionaries in particular saw their role as: combating godlessness, superstition and backwardness. In particular encourage better use of land; encourage paycheck work; become trusted advisor to tribal leaders. The slogan "Bring the 3Cs into Africa" referred to Commerce, Christianity and Civilization. To their mind Rhodes' vision of British Imperialism was straight up military tyranny. If followed he would make England no different than a modern day Genghis Khan, creating a empire loathed by a vast expanse of subject peoples who would unite against it from all directions. Instead interfering minimally and being seen as an ally while slowly educated the elite in British custom and religion would cause a gradual consensual change that would build British alliances that would last centuries. Plus such an approach would fulfill the Lord's Great Commission (term for Jesus' command to convert the entire world to Christianity) in a way that honored God rather than shamed him. One need only look at how the Spanish, Portuguese and Balkans had thrown off Islam after centuries to see how ineffective military tyranny was at long term conversions that didn't require force. So in their mind: No the London Office should stand by its traditional values of: monopoly companies and plantations run in (unequal) partnership with indigenous elite. free trade, free (and indeed forced) migration, infrastructural investment, balanced budgets, sound money, the rule of law and incorrupt administration. As far as their Boer, in their mind the Boer were the primary impediment to enlighten British rule in South Africa, being Christians they were obligated to agree with the missionaries on the vision of the White Man's Burden and Enlightened Empire. Rather than making concession to the Boer they needed to be crushed to demonstrate the moral difference between the Boer and the British. With Rhodes' change in policy tilting towards rather than away from the Boer the Western Left came to truly hate the Boer in 1890s. Since the point of this series is the analogy I'll add that I wrote two posts about more or less the same groups of Liberal Christians turning against Israel again having to do with Israeli/Jews discrediting Liberal Western values and thus interfering with the Great Commission: WCC churches and Quakers.
Rhodes in debates before and at the time considered this Liberal Empire stuff to be simply aspirational. Without economic interference there wasn't enough money to fund anything like what the Liberals proposed. He'd point to facts like that after a century of such rules in India they had increased the secondary schooling 7x to a whopping 2% while England with not nearly as many well funded missionary organizations was over 16%.
Rhodes hoped to unify all of Southern Africa around this compromise approach to the franchise. ZAR however rejected this compromise. By the mid 1990s approximately 1/3rd of their white population were British (Anglicans). ZAR had every intent of maintaining religious based voting criteria (i.e. citizenship in ZAR was only open to people who were members of several Dutch Reformed Churches, see part 2). Obviously for Rhodes a situation where British people were the disempowered minority was intolerable. Additionally the ZAR were maintaining an anti-Cape Colony / anti-British / anti-Rhodes trade policy. It was becoming increasingly clear there would need to be regime change. So in 1895 Rhodes organized an attempted coup d'état now called the "Jameson Raid" (yes the same Jameson who went on to be Prime Minister 1904-8 of the Cape Colony after the 2nd Boer War). The Afrikaners were more astute than natives had been caught wind of the early organization and waited until the forces were committed trapping hundreds of Rhode's people creating a great embarrassment.
Its at this point that the Boer made by far the greatest mistake of their history as a people. The 4 years between 1895-9 were when they made the choices that led to their ruin. The British were really embarrassed. A colonial governor who had a crown chartered corporation had been caught red handed engaging in a serious act of war against another sovereign state with no approval from Parliament. The Colonial Office admitted as much and forced Rhodes out of office in 1896. The Afrikaners had real negotiating leverage to work out a deal. It obviously would be extremely important that the next leader of the Cape be friendly. But they didn't decide to negotiate. Instead they started flirting with the Germans, while not actually signing a formal alliance with Germany that at least had the potential to provide them real protection. The flirtation however, turned a nasty incident into a serious threat to all British interests in Southern Africa forcing a British response. In Britain an alliance of Jingoists (populist military hawks) angry about the humiliation of 1st Boer War, Conservative Imperialists who wanted to end Boer independence especially in the ZAR (the 3 core values for Conservatives at the time were: Union with Ireland, the Empire and the superiority of the British race), Liberal Imperialists who supported Rhodes' vision and Missionaries who hated the Boer formed pushing for a war. Seeing this alliance form against them the Afrikaners did nothing to avert the danger. Rather they made a mistake many 2nd tier powers do when it comes to 1st tier powers. The Afrikaners confused the light force and weak will the 1st tier power is willing to spend on them with the amount of force the 1st tier power is capable of employing if it so chooses. Having beaten the British handily in the 1st Boer War when they were fighting the C-team (as I called in part 2) the Afrikaners grossly underestimated what they would face against a British army that had a political mandate for victory, what Britain's A-team would look like. Preparing for something slightly worse than the 1st Boer War the Boer began a serious arms buying program in 1897. ZAR also got more belligerent in their rhetoric which led to a formal alliance with the Orange State and Boer guerilla groups that could support the war effort in the Cape. The Boer had about 63k troops including some foreign troops. .
The British were determined not to lose the 2nd Boer War. This was going to be the British-A team. By the second phase of the war between British soldiers, soldiers from other colonies and local Africans providing auxiliary Boer were facing a 500-600k man army. Nor was the command third or even second rate as it had been in the 1st Boer War. For example, the top military command would be Herbert Kitchener who was fresh from the victorious Anglo-Egyptian invasion of Sudan. Kitchener after the 2nd Boer War would go on to be the Commander-in-Chief for the armies in India and a decade after that the UK's Secretary of State for War during World War 1. He's this guy:

Kitchener famous 1914 recruiting poster
The cost to maintain that army would be £60m / year far more than Britain could ever pull out of Southern Africa (GDP and inflation adjusted the Boer War would cost the UK about $250b). The first phase of the war was a Boer offensive while the British were still deploying troops in October–December 1899. Once the British were done they conquered all pockets of resistance in the Cape and Orange as well as essentially the entire ZAR territory January to September 1900. The Afrikaners decided to fight when surrender was the better option. Leading to a guerrilla war between September 1900 and May 1902.
The British simply could not afford to keep an army of that size in the field for years dealing with guerilla tactics until the Boer admitted they were beat. Facing time pressure the British felt they had no choice but to come down hard. The British cut the guerilla war short by instituting a scorched earth policy against areas giving support to guerillas in the ZAR (most of the ZAR). ZAR men were mostly in the militias. Scorched earth destroyed the food supply in the ZAR so the British threw the women and children in concentration camps. The army hadn't prepped for needing to support massive numbers of civilians so malnutrition and disease were rampant in the concentration camps. This disease and malnutrition resulting in a camp death rate of approximately 30% annually. A policy amounting to genocide. Pro Boer forces in the UK generated widespread opposition to the camps so the military response was to not confine woman and children and instead leave civilians on the now barren earth to die of starvation and exposure. Actual POWs were deported to Bermuda and India preventing the Boer from standing any chance of liberating them. African tribes that had lost territory to the Boer began moving in. While both sides had agreed not to arm natives or recruit tribes. But the British weren't going to fight for the Boer if tribes decided to take advantage of their defeat. The Boer were quickly losing everything they were fighting for: freedom, their lands, their family, the self dependence and surrendered rather than have their population geocoded to oblivion, being left with no economy and whatever lands they managed to hold being assaulted on all sides by natives who would take it from them.
The Boer society that emerged from the surrender did not have separatist attitude. Destitute Boers now willing to work in the minds and alongside black Africans swelled the ranks of the unskilled urban poor competing with the "uitlanders" in the mines. The new economy was unambiguously focused on gold causing mine production to swell enriching the British interests. The Afrikaners were both physically and psychologically crushed, and wouldn't be causing any more problems for decades.
In the UK the war came to be seen as excessive especially as the financial cost of the war sunk in. The Conservatives' suffered a spectacular defeat in 1906 driving the Conservative Prime Minister at the time (12 July 1902 – 4 December 1905) Arthur Balfour from office. He comes up rather regularly on this sub in his later role as Foreign Minister. As the Boer are no longer resisting the British Empire the shift towards more pro-Boer policies from England continues. In 1909 the British Parliament dissolves the British colonies of: Cape of Good Hope, Natal, Orange River Colony, and Transvaal and combines them into a Federal Union of South Africa. This makes South Africa into a Dominion (essentially Australia's status at the time). Jan Smuts (an Afrikaner) resurrects Rhodes' idea of a Common Wealth and the British embrace it.
And so we conclude part 3 our story of how the British eventually won and South Africa came to exist. How the Western Left started to hate the Boer, a hatred they would resurrect later. And how the first steps towards apartheid were taken. Whew that was longer than I intended!

submitted by JeffB1517 to IsraelPalestine [link] [comments]

Trapped to a controlling and emotionally abusive wife. Please help me break this cycle or get out.

I created this account on 2 June 2020 when I first thought about posting here and things improved somewhat, but have again declined big time, so here I am.
I am 37M, been married for nearly 2 years, 0 kids, 1 dog and we brought an apartment and renovated it last year, theres complications around the property type in terms of minimum length of ownership if I go down this path.
Basically since I got married, my wife has become more and more controlling. and sex has become less and less frequent, even after deciding we would try to have a kid, it was seldom and irregular. My wife has become more controlling, it started with little things like making excuses why she couldn't take the dog down to pee in the evening, refusing to consolidate bank accounts, and getting down right angry if i put any bills in my name and even when I took out a credit card in my name. On the money side of things I am much better with money than her, I have come from a reasonably low income situation to become comparatively very successful, where as she has never really learned the value of money, always paid things late and in some cases, not at all and expected a rebate on the penalties after she does finally pay it, while this all might sound very one sided, our individual credit ratings reflect this very clearly. I tried to fix this for her by taking over almost all payments, which I did well to some extent, there have been 2 instances in the past 3 years where I have missed a payment by a couple of days due to miscommunication and as a result, been charged a penalty, and she has flipped her shit at me over it. This is just the tip of the iceberg, but it gives an idea.
Any time we do get into an argument, she will use what I say against me, and insert subtext where there isn't any and generally manipulate the conversation in her favour, a large part of her job is business negation and she is quite good at it. This results in if I give a reason to support why something was done, she will extrapolate that reason, twist it and turn it into a reason why "she should suffer". In short, she is emotionally abusive. She will quickly go from what to a normal person would be a minor thing that doesn't really matter or can be excused as an accident to an abrasive "Why did you do that? Come on, think about it, why are you so stupid?" which then escalates to "well we should just get a divorce then" or "then i'll just kill myself". This last one is the crux of why I am still with her. She has done this for years, she threatens to kill herself or bangs her head on a wall or hits herself, I feel I have to stay to protect her, which, while doesn't deescalate the situation, does stop her from hurting herself more physically. I created this account last year after an incident where I had to call the police on her because she was trying to jump out the window of our then, 14th story rental. I could not control her and I was so broken myself I simply couldn't function. It has reached that point again yesterday, and came close 2 weeks ago where she actually pulled a kitchen knife on me.
Now it gets complicated, I am living in Singapore, I am from Australia, and have been here 3 years almost. I moved for her, to have a life with her. I gave up so much and gambled my career for her. I have very few friends, and no support network here at all. As we share an apartment which we own and only moved into 4 months ago, I have no where to go. The apartment is a good example of her getting her own way, there is virtually nothing in there that I chose, the lights, tiles, walls, foor, paints, everything she chose and wouldn't accept my suggestions on, with the exception of appliances because shes not very techy.
If she gets into one of her states and starts to hurt herself, if I don't protect her, then I feel I will be held accountable if the police get involved, to try to protect myself I have started to record on my phone our interactions, I know this will backfire on me, but I am in a lose lose situation.
Things really went bad at the end of 2018, when her dog, Prince, a Sheltie, was put up for boarding at a dog hotel called Platinum dogs club when we were visiting my family in Australia for Christmas. On the day before Christmas, we got notified that the facility was raided by the govt animal welfare group, the AVA at the time, and Prince was missing. We later found out that he was killed on the 23rd of December, 2018, 2 days after we dropped him off under their care. I know she still blames herself for his loss.
Some good came of this at least, it has spurred reform into animal welfare in Singapore and over all the incidents will have a great positive impact for the treatment and welfare of animals here, but this is just icing and not overly relevant to this discussion.
This got us involved in working with some rescue group in Singapore, where we had come across 2 border collie females, removed from puppy mills and horrible treatment/conditions. They were found to be pregnant when they came in, but due to being very malnourished, didn't show, but in the end each delivered 4 gorgeous pups each, 10 days apart. We ended up being given the pleasure to adopt one, which while I was reluctant at first to take on a new dog given my experience with having to fully take care of Prince alone, I wanted some reprieve, however with the loss of Prince, my wife was very depressed and it was one of the only things that brought her joy, so I gave in, and we adopted Seven who is almost 2 years old now and very happy and healthy. One of the considerations was that she promised she would feed him and walk him in the evenings and in the mornings if i had to leave for work early. None of these promises held true regularly. She likes the idea of having a dog, and manages an Instagram for him, she does love him, but she doesn't take good care of him. She uses the same excuses to not walk him, she doesn't feed him and when I am busy and forget to in the evening, yells at me for not feeding him until I do it (which is usually immediately), instead of feeding him herself, as to our original agreement.
This is what complicates things and where the account name comes from, if I leave, i'm taking the dog with me, I don't trust her to look after him properly. On the flip side, I know this will make her more depressed, so again i'm in a lose lose situation where if I take him and she does something drastic, its on my conscience, but if I leave him, and she neglects him, it's also going to weigh heavily on me. I don't know what to do here.
At the end of the day I've gone through this too many times, and I want out. I sold almost all my things before I moved here, I have not much left, so much so when I came here, everything I still owned fit into a 2 X 1.2m X 1m shipping crate. If I moved back, there would likely be much less. While I could stay in Singapore, due to the structure of our finances, I have no access to cash for a apartment lease, nor do i want to commit to more than a 2 month lease. I can't lease a room because of the dog as well. I do have a separate office room at home with a sofa bed which I will be sleeping on for the foreseeable future, but I simply don't want to be around her.
There are more problems, I will cover 2 final ones, the first being she projects - In that I mean, if she does something wrong or something is a problem to her, ie she feels she has eaten too much sugar, she outwardly projects that onto other people, and she will tell me i'm eating too much sugar and get angry at me, this also comes with money. I have explained this to her but she just gets angry and gives me a response along the lines of "Then how, i'll just work and spend nothing, is that what you want? I won't buy food and i'll starve and die" - This is a very very standard and common response from her.
The second is (you guessed it) money. Since I started dating her, before we were married, I wanted to upgrade my PC, it is now 11 years old, and I take a lot of enjoyment from gaming, I also do a lot of work and study with it. The first 2 years, we were both flying between Australia and Singapore regularly, it was costly and it was off the cards. We then agreed when I moved to Singapore that anything outside of our base salary we earned, was ours to spend on what ever we wanted, no questions asked. This means; Contracted bonuses, over time, 13th mon pay (this is a thing in Singapore for december), Ad-hoc bonuses, gifts etc. We agreed on this and she REALLY wanted a new mac, and to be fair, her pc was as old as mine but much lower spec, so I agreed that she would get it mid year, and a portion of her end of year bonus would go back into joint funds. This was fine. Since this agreement, I have earned somewhere in the range of 30 - 40k in bonuses and overtime, and not been able to spend a single cent on myself. Hell the last time I brought new clothes for myself was at our wedding and 8 months before that, outside of what was desperately needed (socks with holes in them and shoes where the tread was either coming off or worn to nothing). Our wages are fairly similar, but at the end of every month I have around $300 - 400 in my bank account after bills and loan repayments, and she usually has most of her pay, and again, she refused to consolidate accounts.
Emotionally for the past two weeks I have been hanging by a thread, I have kept my shit together for the most part, but I really struggle, and it has spilt over into work. I had a conversation with my boss this morning and outlined it all and he confessed he had seen a lot of it also. It seems I get the same consensus from everyone whom I speak with.
What I am seeking from this post is advise based on what some of you have gone through, what your close friends / family have gone through, what went right, what did not, what could have been done better and advise on how to protect myself from someone who will hurt themselves or potentially, try to take their own life. Furthermore, I wish her no ill will, I don't want to just abandon her and her do something stupid the moment I leave, this is my biggest fear, but I know I have to just walk away at some point and stop giving her the attention she is trying to get. If I get her friends involved then she will use that against me again. If I move out, I will seek one of her friends to take her to dinner or similar and clear my shit out, or is this a bad idea?
Legal wise, I realise this isn't a lawyers office and I don't expect anything binding here, but when should I engage one? how do I go about it? What should I expect to pay?
As much as I need my share of what is in our apartment, I do not care at this point about it. She can live in it for all I care and pay me back, or rent a room to pay me slowly or sell it when we can or even just keep it as a shared asset, I do not care.
While this is obviously one sided because it comes from just me, I will admit I am not perfect, and I do have a crappy memory, something she sometimes exploits. But I do most of the house work, I take good care of our dog, I do equal, if not more of the cooking, I take care of all the bills. I have learned to make bread and sour dough because she "wanted really nice bread". I have learned to cook french style fine dining meals for her. I heave learned Chinese style cooking for her. I ALWAYS help her in the kitchen when she cooks and set the table ready to eat, these things she has never once done for me, even when asked, she ignores the request. I clean up after her and I restrict my mess to my office. I compromise regularly and let her have her own way. I do what she wants to do for leisure and I don't pressure her to do what I want to do. I have even been studying psychology for the past 6 months to try to better handle her with little success. I have learned to never raise my voice (and obviously never raise a hand, I would never) to her, I have tried multiple techniques for calming her, but she goes against the common theories.
I don't know where to group this, but she has also been unwilling to attend any counselling or individual therapy, she sees it as a waste of money and doesn't see herself as having a problem.
I am her cleaner, her body guard her source of entertainment, her chef and her animal handler. I have very little of me left and its not a future I want.
My next steps (in no particular order) I feel should be:
(Closer to a move home)
I would really love some advise, mostly around next steps, how to protect myself, how to help her and keep her safe and how to end this cycle. Ideally I do not want to leave, but if I don't, my life will be miserable and I currently see no future with her. She regularly reminds me she doesn't want kids, which changed AFTER we got married, I feel I am being robbed of the chance to have a family.

Update: (Because thats what we need, a bigger wall of text) Yesterday when I was about to call a lawyer, I got a call from a social worker whom my wife had contacted, she told me that my wife had reached out after talking to her mother (something I would have done but I don't speak mandarin well and her mother doesn't speak much english). I was told that based on what my wife said, she was considered a suicide risk and they wanted her to go to IMH for assessment immediately, due to her work schedule she declined and committed to going Saturday, though I am not sure this will happen. My wifes sense of self worth is tied to how others see her, even strangers, this I feel is partly responsible for her depression, and the same reason she is delaying the visit and the reason she used a pseudonym.
To an extent, and knowing her, I feel this was in part, a power play to force me to come back home as the social worker asked I be around to keep an eye on her otherwise she would have to have the police do it, which, given what I said about her sense of self worth, would be a very very bad idea.
While I do give her credit, it doesn't change my feelings, I still want out, but I won't be telling her until this is resolved. I do fully understand that if she has her mind set on something I will be unlikely to change it, it still is my responsibility as her husband, a member of the community and a human in general. I will work with the psychiatrist or psychologist she is assigned once she is, and figure out the best, and safest way to tell her.
submitted by IamKeepingTheDog to Divorce [link] [comments]

Please help need advice desperate

Hi guys, im 22 years old from Melbourne Australia and I have gone too far this time. I have been gambling since I was 18 and my main sport is AFL. I have done well betting afl i have tracked my bets here over the last few years and I am up several thousand in this sport.. The problem is when off season comes along and I get bored and start betting other sports I do not know much about such as the nba, nfl and tennis. Well the past three weeks i have been on a spiral out of control chasing losses and lost all my left over savings of 11k. I'm in my last year of university and dont work so now im broke and have no way to get any more money.
I've been having thoughts about committing crimes or getting the biggest loan I can and gambling it to try and get it back. I'm finding it hard to live with myself all that money gone up in smoke I feel sick and dont know what to do.
Anyone else that has been in this position can you please help? I just cant stop feeling disgusted with myself about what ive done and cant believe I tilted this much and am broke.
submitted by degengambler54 to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Enphase Energy post-earnings announcement

Enphase Energy post-earnings announcement
Hi all,
Yesterday Enphase Energy published their Q4 2020 results. See my earlier DD here: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lfdy2w/enphase_energy_enph_preearnings_feb_9_extensive_dd/
With this post I would like to discuss the results and the web-call with regard to future growth/earnings. So far my investment in Enphase was a solid move (5% after-market), let’s hope that this momentum will increase. I have divided this post in three chapters: results, web-cast management notes and analyst Q&A. However, before we continue let me first do a short into on the new C-suite hire.
Chief Marketing Officer
Enphase recently announced that they hired Allison Johnson as Chief Marketing Officer. Who is Mrs. Johnson and why did they hire her at this moment? Are sales declining or are there some amazing plans in the pipeline?
“Johnson brings decades of executive marketing experience to Enphase, including serving as chief marketing officer at PayPal, where she led a global marketing transformation, and as vice president of marketing communications at Apple, Inc., where she helped launch some of Apple’s most iconic products and campaigns of the Steve Jobs era. Johnson received her Bachelor of Science degree in journalism and communications at the University of Florida.”
When checking her Linkedin, she started working at IBM as a Media Relations Director, moved to Netscape (1 year) à HP (6 years) à Apple (6 years) à West (7 years) à Paypal (1.5 years).
Let leave it here for now.
Results Q4 2020:
· We reported revenue of $264.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, along with 40.2% for non-GAAP gross margin. We shipped approximately 762 megawatts DC, or 2,292,132 microinverters.
· Revenue of $264.8 million
· Cash flow from operations of $84.2 million; ending cash balance of $679.4 million
· GAAP gross margin of 46.0%; non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2%
· GAAP operating income of $79.1 million; non-GAAP operating income of $72.4 million
· GAAP net income of $73.0 million; non-GAAP net income of $71.3 million
· GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.50; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.51

https://preview.redd.it/0p36krxrumg61.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a22f5ec7452ecfbb765678468c2698d7b14ab9f
This was their forecast for Q4 2020:
For the fourth quarter of 2020, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
· Revenue to be within a range of $245.0 million to $260.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
· GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, excluding the recovery of the remaining $16.0 million tariff refund that has not yet been approved; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding tariff refund and stock-based compensation expenses
· GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $51.0 million to $54.0 million, including $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
· Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $35.0 million to $38.0 million, excluding $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
So one can say that they performed extremely well.
Management notes web-call:
Badri:
Let's now talk about manufacturing. Our operations team did a great job flexing manufacturing as 2020 played out. When the pandemic began, we cut manufacturing in Q2 of 2020 and then had to quickly ramp back up to meet the surge in demand in Q3 and Q4. The production in Q4 was more than two times the level in Q2. I'm very pleased with the ramp of our Mexico factory that met our target of producing more than 1 million units in Q4.”
“As part of our supply chain strategy to diversify production to tariff free and cost competitive locations globally, we began microinverter production at Salcomp, India in October of 2020 and started shipping to customers during Q4. We have a high quality state-of-the-art automated line with a quarterly production capacity of 0.5 million units and the space to add a second line with the same capacity. The production ramp is going very well and we expect to produce approximately 400,000 microinverters in India in Q1.”
“Let's now move on to the regions. Our US and international revenue mix for Q4 was 82% and 18%.”
“In Europe, we reported record revenue for Q4. Revenue increased 10% sequentially. On an annual basis, the revenue from Europe increased 32% in 2020.”
“In Australia, we built on our strong Q3 results and achieved record quarterly sell-through and record installer count in Q4. The results were fueled by the launch of our Enphase Installer Network or EIN as well as growing demand for our high power IQ 7A microinverters plus a favorable competitive environment as regulations continued to shift towards safer and smarter solar. We expect to introduce our Enphase Storage system for the Australian market during the fourth quarter of 2021.”
“In Latin America, we reported record quarterly revenue. Puerto Rico showed strength for our microinverter systems as well as our storage systems.”
“At the same time, the uptick in broad economic activity has stressed the global semiconductor supply chain. We are seeing constraints on a few semiconductor components used in our microinverters.”
There are two specific components that we are constrained on. One is our ASIC that goes into the micro and the other is the AC FET drivers that actually drive the high voltage FET. There the name of the game is we are qualifying multiple more sources so that we have more supply as well as expediting product. And I am in direct touch with the CEOs of those companies and they are helping as much as they can. We expect to get all caught up basically by early April. Our top priority through all of this is to ensure that we take care of customers. So we will do whatever it takes in order to ensure their lines are running and that they are not affected. So that's on the microinverter side.”
“You will see a lot more going forward. So we continue to grow at a nice clip. You can do the math. If we continue to grow at this 30%, soon we will need a third supplier, that might happen in 2022 and we are already talking to those people”
TL:DR: They are growing in every aspect. They are trying to train installers internationally (Australia, Europe, South-America). Ones these installers are trained appropriately, they will start installing the products. Enphase will rather wait with the installment to only send very trained personnel, then just let a shitty installer do the job.
Q&A:
Q1: “Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the quarter. So you said you'll start shipping IQ 8 in 2Q. How should we think about IQ 8's standalone pricing versus IQ 7? What may be the range on the premium and might you expect over time a majority of installers shifting more toward IQ 8 versus IQ 7 or is the jury out on that question still?”
A1: “With regarding whether people are going to adopt IQ 8 over IQ 7, we think the answer is a no brainer. It's going to be, yes. IQ 8 is a grid-independent microinverter system. So, therefore, I expect the adoption to be high when it is released and there are obviously a lot of combinations with IQ 8 and in some cases, people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
Q2: “Okay. Thank you. And just on the R&D cycle, are there any updates you can provide on the development of IQ 9 where that currently stands at this time? Is it still being developed or is it in testing phase? If you can provide any color there? Thank you.”
A2: “Yeah. We are actually working on IQ 9 at this time and IQ 9, our vision is basically obviously smaller, cheaper, faster, producing a lot more power than IQ 8. Right now, we are focused on a few areas. One is, we'd like to see how to reduce the footprint of the transformers, the [indiscernible] (00:49:10), the 600-volt AC FET devices through some semiconductor process innovation. GaN transistors are becoming widespread. GaN-on-GaN, GaN-on-silicon, they are becoming widespread.”
Q3: “And just on the new acquisitions and the digital strategy, could you maybe talk about like what's the goal here in terms of reducing that soft cost? I think a couple in the solar developers have talked about $7,000 or $8,000 per customer of soft costs. So, is the idea here to kind of like bring it down similar to probably what the soft cost is in Europe and Australia or what's your thought process here? And I have just a quick follow-up after that as well. Thanks.
Yeah. So, soft cost is an outcome of what our goal is. Our goal is to provide our installer partners with the best service possible, and so – installer partners actually as well as the homeowner. So, we have mapped out a very detailed journey of both how the entire installation process as well for both the installers as well as our homeowners starting with leads all the way through design, proposal, permitting, procurement, commissioning, installation commissioning, permission to operate O&M, et cetera. And so, if we do an amazing job on that where we really create a very powerful platform and these acquisitions that we're talking about are important elements of that journey, then I think the natural outcome of that is going to be a reduction in the soft cost. But we are starting with a very clear focus that this is about bringing great value for our long-tail installer partners.”
My thoughts:
Staying invested in a company post-earnings is normally not our strategy. We scan every company on the earnings calendar and dive in the fundamentals/growth of that company. If you find 3 solid companies which you want to gamble your money on per week, there is a possibility to earn 10% ROI on each of those companies. Investing in boomer company of which the stock increases 2% post-earnings is not interesting for us. It rather be +7% at least, or nothing.
Enphase however is a different story. They keep beating their forecasts every quarter. There is enormous demand for their products and they a growing in supply and demand.
- Management is amazing. The way Badri perceives the business is very client focused. They are well aware that this is a client focused business and quality and client experience are top priority.
- With regards to future growth they have some very interesting things going on. IQ 8, which I expect to be finished during the 2nd quarter of this year. Then it is the job of the new CMO to promote the heck out of this. As Badri said in the call: “people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
- There is so much growth opportunity in this company. And yes the P/E is high, but you must see Enphase as a tech company and not solar producer. Last quarter they hired 85 employees.
- So our plan: keep this gem for one more quarter to see how their results are in the next quarter. Have they improved their semiconductors problem or not? Are they still beating the forecast or not. Then we’ll see from there on. This weekend’s plan: scan earnings calendar of next week to find the next gem 😊
Q1 2021 forecasts:
For the first quarter of 2021, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
• Revenue to be within a range of $280.0 million to $300.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
• GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, as there are no remaining tariff refunds pending approval; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding stock-based compensation expenses
• GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $64.0 million to $67.0 million, including $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
• Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $42.0 million to $45.0 million, excluding $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
submitted by Edjaz to TheDailyDD [link] [comments]

what is problem gambling australia video

Problem gambling, also known as a gambling addiction, gambling disorder, or habitual gambling, is said to affect between 2 and 3% of the gambling population. Without getting help, it could seriously impact a person's life which is why it's important to educate yourself about problem gambling and its signs. Gambling Reforms. Digital technologies are rapidly changing Australia’s gambling industry. The 2015 Review of Illegal Offshore Wagering (the Review) noted that online wagering is the fastest growing gambling segment, with over $1.4 billion gambled online each year. Digital technology is also enabling operators to reach our phones, our televisions, our home computers at any time of the day or ... Popular gambling choices include games known to be associated with risk (cards, horse races, sports betting, casino games, and gaming machines) as well as lotto/scratch tickets. Males are more likely to be problem gamblers than females, and almost 10 % of male international students could be classified as problem gamblers. People with gambling disorder often hide their behaviour, but there are warning signs that gambling has become a problem for someone you know. These may include: missing money or household valuables; borrowing money regularly; having multiple loans; unpaid bills; lack of food and household essentials; withdrawing from family or at work It can also lead to stress, mental health issues and loss of control. In fact, 0.5-1.0% of Australian adults are problem gamblers according to Central Coast Gambling Help, and a further 1.4-2.1% ... AGRC survey reveals young men betting more in lockdown. October 2020: The Australian Gambling Research Centre’s survey on gambling during COVID-19 has shown that young male gamblers spent more in lockdown and they were doing it online (with one in three signing up for new online betting accounts).Dr Rebecca Jenkinson, AGRC manager, at the Australian Institute of Family Studies discussed the ... Why Australia has a serious gambling problem. By Clarissa Sebag-Montefiore, CNN. Updated 1824 GMT (0224 HKT) September 1, 2017 . JUST WATCHED When gambling becomes an addiction. Replay. What is problem gambling? Problem gambling does not have to mean you are totally out of control; it is any gambling behaviour that disrupts your life or the life of your loved ones. The impacts of problem gambling can be far reaching and can include: Debt or other financial problems; Relationship problems; Loss of employment or problems at work Gambling problems are indicated in the HILDA Survey by endorsing one or more items on the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). According to the standard use of the PGSI, 1.1 million regular gamblers were estimated to have behaved in ways that caused or put them at risk of gambling-related problems. Problem gambling is a common and frequently untreated problem. GPs can play an important role in ensuring that problem gambling is detected and treated. There are effective and durable treatments for problem gambling, including CBT and motivational interviewing. Competing interests: None.

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what is problem gambling australia

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